Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1510 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming it as a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair increased by 100 pips.

Yesterday's decision by President Trump to postpone strikes on Iranian energy targets for five days and to announce potential success in peace negotiations caused noticeable fluctuations in global financial arenas. This led to a sharp strengthening of the euro and a decline of the US dollar. On one hand, the postponement of military actions and the initiation of negotiations reduce the immediate threat of escalation in a critical region, contributing to global economic stability. On the other hand, there remains uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of this course and the authenticity of information on actual negotiations, as Iran has not confirmed them.

Today is expected to be an eventful day on the economic front. The morning will be marked by the release of key business activity indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors. These indices serve as reliable barometers of the business climate, reflecting production dynamics, new orders, employment levels, and pricing trends. It is anticipated that manufacturing indicators may signal some stabilization following the preceding decline; however, the impending onset of the US-Iran war makes it unclear whether these indicators will react to the new conflict.

Particular attention should be paid to the upcoming speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Amid ongoing inflationary uncertainty and significant challenges facing the European economy, every statement from the head of one of the key central banks in the Eurozone will be thoroughly analyzed for new signals regarding monetary policy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1592 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1615. At 1.1615, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in EUR/USD. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1576 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards opposing levels of 1.1592 and 1.1615 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1576 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1550, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1592 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards opposing levels of 1.1576 and 1.1550 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.