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10.12.2025 12:53 AM
The American currency has successfully avoided its worst-case scenario for five consecutive months. Personally, I do not fully understand why the market is hesitating with new dollar sell-offs when the news picture is as clear as day. However, it is not my place to tell the market what to do; I can only analyze what is happening. My conclusions over the past months, despite the lack of anticipated growth in EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments, have not changed. I do not believe my conclusions are erroneous because, apart from the growth of these instruments, we do not see any significant declines either. Predicting when the next sideways movement in the market will occur is impossible.
As 2025 draws to a close, it's time to begin summarizing some results. If the current year finishes on a similar note to the last five months, then we can only look forward to 2026. What awaits the dollar in 2026? In my opinion, the sell-offs of the American currency will resume with almost no alternative scenarios. The only question is when. In the second half of the current year, the U.S. dollar accumulated a whole list of news factors that point to its decline. Questions about the American currency began to arise in September, when the Fed resumed its monetary easing cycle, prompting a rise in demand for the dollar.
October began with Donald Trump raising tariffs on imports of trucks, pharmaceuticals, and even furniture. Isn't this a new escalation of the global trade war? Yet the dollar continued to appreciate. Soon after, news broke about increased tariffs for India and renewed pressure on China, as the U.S. president decided to accuse these countries of financing the war in Ukraine and demanded a halt to purchases of Russian energy supplies. Another escalation.
Starting October 1, the longest "shutdown" in U.S. history began, lasting 43 days, or nearly a month and a half. For these six weeks, demand for the U.S. currency continued to rise. I cannot say that the dollar executed a blitzkrieg and significantly improved its position after the first half of 2025, but it still managed to gain strength. At the end of October, the Fed lowered interest rates for the second time, which further strengthened the American currency.
Based on all of the above, the dollar has ample reasons to lose another 10% of its value against the euro and the pound throughout 2026. In this overview, I have only considered existing reasons for a decline that pertain exclusively to American realities. In the next overview, we will discuss other reasons.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend section. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current trend section could reach the 25-figure mark. However, the last upward section of the trend has taken on a corrective appearance again; therefore, we may now see the beginning of a minimum downward wave of this section, with the maximum being a new downward corrective wave.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. However, wave 4 itself may take on a five-wave form.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, but the current wave set will likely remain corrective. Therefore, a decline at the beginning of next week is also possible, and the attempt to break the 1.3360 mark was unsuccessful.
