On Monday, the USD/CHF pair is approaching the convergence of several moving averages, adding 0.28% for the day amid a new wave of risk aversion that supports the US dollar.

Market participants' sentiment is currently influenced by concerns over the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, arising from conflicting reports about an incident involving an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz. While some US sources have denied any missile strike, the ongoing uncertainty is pushing investors to reduce their exposure to riskier assets.

Tensions heightened after the Iranian news agency Fars reported that two missiles were fired toward an American warship that, according to Iran, ignored warnings from Tehran. This incident occurred amidst already existing tensions, soon after the US announced its plans to secure shipping safety in the region.

However, US officials have denied any direct missile strike, while Iranian sources suggested it could have been a warning shot that caused no confirmed damage. This uncertainty maintains a high degree of tension in the markets, especially in light of Iran's warning that any US intervention would be deemed a violation of the ceasefire.

The US dollar benefits from a surge in safe-haven capital, strengthening against major world currencies.

Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, also reinforce this trend, as investors anticipate potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

In this context, traders are exercising caution ahead of the release of key economic data from the US, particularly the ADP report on private sector employment and, primarily, Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These data, along with speeches by Federal Reserve officials, are expected to provide additional clarity on monetary policy prospects following the hawkish statements last week.

Regarding the Swiss franc, the fundamental factors determining its exchange rate remain quite resilient, limiting its downside potential against the US dollar. Recent data indicate improved manufacturing activity: in April, the PMI in the manufacturing sector calculated by SVME rose to 54.5 points. However, as noted by Commerzbank, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has little room left for consistently weakening the franc. The bank believes that significant interventions will be required to affect the exchange rate of the Swiss currency—a step that seems unlikely due to risks to the bank's balance and political constraints.

Thus, while the US dollar is currently supported by demand for safe-haven assets, the Swiss franc's structural resilience may limit further gains in the USD/CHF pair in the short term.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar exchange rate against major currencies as of today. The US dollar's strongest positions were against the Australian dollar.