আরও দেখুন
21.04.2026 05:01 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Monday, although traders in the second half of the day remembered that it was time to trade a bit. However, instead of the expected rise of the US dollar under the current circumstances, we saw an increase in the British pound. The explanation for this is clear: the geopolitical factor is no longer key to the market. The war in the Middle East was the only reason for the dollar's strength in the past two months, but we have repeatedly warned that the market cannot keep buying the dollar solely based on this factor, ignoring all others. The upward trend of 2022 remains intact, and the upward trend of 2025 is also holding. Most fundamental and macroeconomic factors remain sharply negative for the dollar. Therefore, we still expect the GBP/USD pair to rise in 2026.
Should we expect new growth for the US dollar if the war in the Middle East resumes? Probably, yes, but it won't fit within a sustainable trend. Now, such growth will likely be isolated incidents. Of course, the war could spill over beyond the Middle East (which cannot be ruled out), the Bab-al-Mandab Strait could be blocked (which would further worsen the situation regarding oil and gas), and traders would again flee risk. But if the situation simply remains as it is now, there are no new reasons for the US dollar to rise. Everyone who wanted to safeguard their assets from risks has already done so.
Should we expect the market to return to analyzing macroeconomic and fundamental events? Likely, yes. However, if the influence of the geopolitical factor gradually weakens, the impact of macroeconomics and fundamentals will increase accordingly. Therefore, in the near future, we may see many movements that, at first glance, do not make logical sense. For example, on Friday, the market bought the dollar in response to the announcement of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but on Monday, a plethora of negative geopolitical news led the market to sell the dollar. Too many contradictory factors are currently influencing trader sentiment, and the flow of geopolitical news is constantly changing its sign.
It is worth noting that on Monday there were no significant events unrelated to geopolitics worldwide. On Wednesday, the US and Iran may resume the war, and other participants in the conflict are likely to join in. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair needs to overcome the Senkou Span B line on the daily timeframe to genuinely hope for a resumption of the upward trend. This line triggered the last slight downward correction. On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward trend is maintained, and several interesting reports will be released today in the US and the UK, which will show whether the market is ready to return to analyzing economic factors.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 21 is 74 pips, which is considered "average." Therefore, on Tuesday, April 21, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3462 and 1.3610. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a trend change. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a downward pullback. A "bullish" divergence indicates a trend reversal.
The GBP/USD pair continues to recover after two "months of geopolitics." Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price remains above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3367 based on geopolitical grounds. In recent months, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, prolonging the downward trend. However, geopolitics no longer supports the dollar, and the pound now feels freer.
Linear regression channels help to define the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;
The CCI indicator – its entrance into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.
